2018 was a challenging year for the housing and mortgage market—new regulations, rate increases and more made it one of the toughest years for homeowners to qualify. Despite all this, there was still $45.3 billion in collective profits made by the Big Six Banks (Bank of Montreal, CIBC, National Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada, Scotiabank and TD Bank).
Profits for the big banks were up an average of 13% over last year, however their stock prices were down across the board. Here’s the key points from each of the 6 major banks.
What can we expect in 2019? In general, the banks are forecasting increased mortgage growth, but there are also lowered expectations of Bank of Canada rate hikes this year which could impact net interest margins negatively.
From the Big Bank reports there were areas that stood out:
1. BMO: predictions of increasing 1-2 bps per quarter, dependent on certain moves and choices required to do so. Source: BMO conference call
2. CIBC: RESL growth has slowed, but they are predicting an increase in their mortgage portfolio in line with where we see the overall market growth trending. Source: CIBC Conference Call
3. National Bank of Canada: 2018 completed their repositioning of their distribution model translating to higher levels of mortgage originations and renewals. They saw a year over year increase in amortizing HELOCS due to consumers choosing to lock in their rates. Source: NBC Conference Call
4. RBC: Increase in mortgage portfolio of 5% year over year, with a growth in the range of 3-5% for 2019. They feel they have a strong renewal rate in comparison to other banks. HELOC products have shrunk for RBC as clients at renewal looking to lock in our residential mortgage. Source: RBC Conference Call
5. Scotiabank: expecting increased margins supported by higher interest rates. Residential mortgages are also expected to grow at mid-single digits in 2019. Source: Scotiabank Conference Call
6. TD Bank: mid-single digit growth for their proprietary total real estate secured lending portfolio in 2019. They are expecting a rate of growth a little bit lower in the first half, but mid-single digits for the full year. Source: TD Conference Call.
Do you still have questions regarding the 2019 Mortgage Market or the Q4 wrap-up? Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professionals are well versed in the in’s and out’s of the mortgage market and would be happy to walk you through the full details.